Weekly Newsletter: February 23, 2009

Orszag, Liberal Groups Support Health Care Rationing

Today President Obama will host a “fiscal responsibility summit” at the White House, followed later this week by a submission to Congress of his outline for the federal budget in Fiscal Year 2010 and beyond.  Press reports indicate that health issues will predominate both events, as entitlement spending in Medicare and Medicaid will serve as a focus of the fiscal summit, and health initiatives will be given a prominent place in the President’s budget proposals.

However, some Members may take a skeptical view of comments by Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag and others that health care can be reformed—and the entitlement crisis resolved—primarily through government rationing of health care goods and services.  While head of the Congressional Budget Office, Orszag prepared a report on comparative effectiveness research that advocated rationing’s beneficial effects—while alluding to its potential downsides for patients.  The December 2007 report asserted that such research “could …yield lower health care spending without having adverse effects on health.”  However, the report also admits that “patients who might benefit from more-expensive treatments might be made worse off” as a result of changes in reimbursement patterns.

Orszag’s view of health reform is shared by the left-leaning Commonwealth Fund, which last week released its own report outlining ways to generate savings within the health sector.  The largest chunk of proposed savings—$634 billion over ten years—would come from comparative effectiveness research and subsequent rationing of care.  The report asserts that “merely making information available” about the relative merits of treatments “is unlikely to produce” outcomes yielding sufficient savings—and therefore recommends that the new comparative effectiveness center help “to create financial incentives for patients and physicians to avoid high-cost treatments.”  The Fund proposes that the comparative effectiveness center—similar to the Council established in economic “stimulus” legislation signed into law last week—“make benefit and pricing recommendations to public insurance plans, including Medicare.”

While supporting the need to slow the growth of health spending, and entitlement spending in particular, some Members may be concerned by the implications of these recommendations, which would place government bureaucrats between doctors and patients, leading to denials of critical care.  Some Members may instead support alternatives that would slow the growth of health care costs through additional competition (both inside and outside Medicare), while preserving and enhancing a culture where patients and doctors—not insurance companies or government bureaucrats—determine the appropriate course of medical care.  Some Members may also support means testing for the Medicare Part D benefit—requiring Warren Buffett and George Soros to pay more for their prescription drugs—as an additional way to bring our entitlement obligations in line with projected future revenues.

The Outlook Ahead

The President’s address to Congress Tuesday night, coupled with his submission of a budget outline on Thursday, will commence a six-week period leading up to Congress’ Easter recess where health issues will remain prominent.  As indicated above, the budget may include additional provisions regarding comparative effectiveness research and rationing of health care, as well as proposed cuts to Medicare Advantage plans that have proved popular with seniors—particularly those with low incomes—in recent years.  At this time it remains unclear whether the President will use the budget submission to fulfill his statutory obligation to present Congress with Medicare funding reform legislation, as required by the “trigger” provisions inserted into the Medicare Modernization Act at the behest of House Republicans.

Hearings and other legislative activity are also likely to continue regarding comprehensive health reform; Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) introduced his comprehensive bill on February 5, and Senate Finance Chairman Baucus—who pledged to introduce legislation early in the 111th Congress—may follow suit in short order.  The House may also consider legislation related to food and drug safety, as well as a bill (H.R. 1108 in the 110th Congress) giving the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the authority to regulate tobacco products, funded by “user fees” on tobacco companies.  Particularly as many Democrats have harshly criticized the FDA for lax enforcement related to food safety matters, some Members may believe now is precisely the wrong time to distract the FDA from its current mission in order to have the agency regulate the tobacco industry—and the wrong time to burden working families with the second tobacco tax increase this year, on the heels of the 62 cent tax increase used to fund the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) expansion.

Weekly Newsletter: September 8, 2008

The Outlook Ahead

Congress returns from its annual summer vacation today with several health-related issues on the agenda for the month of September. Specifically, additional Medicaid funding could be included in economic “stimulus” legislation, and a massive expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) could come up for another vote. Finally, an agreement-in-principle that negotiators reached on mental health parity legislation could receive a final vote if disputes surrounding the bill’s pay-fors can be resolved.

Many conservatives may be concerned about the Medicaid spending provisions (H.R. 5268), which would provide more than $10 billion in aid to states without providing any “stimulus”—as federal spending would merely supplant state outlays. At a time when the federal government’s budget deficit stands at least eight times the size of states’ combined budget deficits, conservatives may question why the federal government should be asked to bail out states facing fiscal difficulties much smaller by comparison.

Just as important, many conservatives may be concerned that this giveaway to states would not be accompanied by any substantive reforms to a Medicaid program that often fails to provide adequate care to the vulnerable patients it was designed to serve. In many cases, bureaucratic obstacles discourage providers from participating, resulting in limited access and months-long waits for beneficiaries, while fraud remains a persistent problem in several states. Some conservatives may believe that time on the legislative calendar debating a Medicaid bailout should instead be used to discuss more comprehensive structural reforms to the program—so that the poorest beneficiaries are not subjected to more of the same from a government health system that does not work for many.

On SCHIP, many conservatives may retain concerns about a significant expansion of the program— which, according to an Congressional Budget Office score, would now cost significantly more than the $35 billion expansion (H.R. 3963) vetoed by the President last fall. At a time of economic uncertainty for many Americans, conservatives may not support a substantial increase in federal tobacco taxes, which would be borne primarily by working-class families, as a way to increase the government’s role in health care. In addition, many conservatives continue to support Administration guidance designed to ensure that states enroll poor children first before expanding their SCHIP programs to wealthier families, and oppose any efforts by Congressional Democrats to repeal this important principle.

In addition to the concerns that some conservatives may have regarding the increases in insurance premiums caused by mental health parity legislation, conservatives may also be concerned about the way in which the bill’s more than $3 billion price tag will be financed. During House consideration of a mental health parity bill (H.R. 1424) in March, many conservatives objected to provisions—restrictions on physician-owned specialty hospitals, and increased drug rebates demanded from pharmaceutical companies—that undermined free markets in health care and expanded government price controls. The mental health bill is currently attached to tax extenders legislation in the Senate, which remains deadlocked over unrelated disputes; if the impasse over tax provisions continues, it remains unclear which direction or form the mental health legislation may take.

The RSC has prepared two new Policy Briefs, providing an update on SCHIP enrollment statistics and analyzing the premium support provisions within SCHIP.

Uninsured Numbers Show Need for Entitlement Reform

During the recess, the Census Bureau released its annual report on income and health insurance coverage during 2007. The report found that the number of uninsured declined by 1.3 million in 2007 when compared to the previous year, due largely to a 2.8 million increase in the number of Americans receiving coverage under various public programs, particularly Medicaid and Medicare.

Some conservatives may believe the significant growth in the number of Americans receiving government-run health insurance coverage provides another reason to re-examine entitlement spending and reform the health care system. In particular, market-based health reforms have the potential to slow the growth of health costs that threaten both America’s fiscal future and the financial well-being of many families.

The RSC has released an updated Policy Brief analyzing the new Census data, as well as a new Policy Brief highlighting the impact of illegal immigrants—who constitute as much as one-fifth of the uninsured in America—on the health care system.

Cooking the Books

During the recess, the Department of Health and Human Services’ Inspector General released a report criticizing the auditing process undertaken by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) with respect to the integrity of purchases of durable medical equipment (DME). The report stated that CMS’ guidance to the external auditors hired to examine DME claims failed to implement a rigorous level of scrutiny, and that as a result the level of questionable claims was significantly higher than CMS had first reported. Responding to the IG report, Ways and Means Health Subcommittee Chairman Pete Stark (D-CA) said that “to look better to the public, [CMS] cook[s] the books;” he called the agency “incompetent.”

However, three weeks earlier Mr. Stark himself made dubious claims with respect to Medicare reform and President Bush’s tax relief. During debate on the resolution (H.Res. 1368) turning off the Medicare “trigger” mechanism, Mr. Stark claimed that extending the Bush tax relief would cost $100 trillion over 75 years—about three times’ Medicare’s unfunded obligations over that period—such that forgoing an extension of the tax relief provisions would somehow end Medicare’s long-term financial difficulties. However, a report by the liberal Center for Budget and Policy Priorities cites the 75-year cost of the tax relief as $13.6 trillion—less than one-seventh the number cited by Stark in debate—and explicitly states that Medicare and health costs pose a greater threat to the nation’s fiscal solvency than the President’s tax relief. Asked repeatedly to provide a source of information justifying Stark’s statement, Ways and Means Committee staff could not substantiate his comments, or provide an explanation for the $86 trillion higher figure.

Weekly Newsletter: July 28, 2008

Tobacco Bill Coming Soon

This week the House could consider legislation (H.R. 1108) granting the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the authority to regulate tobacco, possibly under suspension of the rules. The bill would establish a new center within FDA to regulate tobacco products and assess tobacco companies more than $5 billion in “user fees” over the next ten years to pay for this regulation.

Some conservatives may be concerned by the regulatory regime the bill would establish, which would require an agency charged with promoting food and drug safety to regulate a product inherently unsafe and unhealthy. Some conservatives may also object to the multiple layers of regulation the bill would create, by leaving intact the Federal Trade Commission’s ability to regulate tobacco advertising and distribution and providing only limited pre-emption against additional state-based regulations and restrictions. Some conservatives may question whether the highly prescriptive restrictions in the bill— including advertising limitations on the use of color advertising and regulation of the font size of tobacco disclaimer warnings, all of which raise significant constitutional questions about their free-speech implications—constitute good public policy, particularly as the Congressional Budget Office estimates that H.R. 1108 will reduce smoking levels by only 2% over 10 years.

Lastly, some conservatives may object to provisions in the bill that could prompt an international trade dispute. Last week, HHS Secretary Leavitt wrote to Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Barton about H.R. 1108, observing that, because the bill prohibits all tobacco flavorings except menthol, foreign countries which manufacture clove or other flavored cigarettes may take action against the United States for providing unfair and disparate treatment for a particular type of manufactured cigarette. As press reports indicate that H.R. 1108 may be considered under suspension of the rules, some conservatives may be concerned by the lack of procedural opportunities available to address this disparity, such that the United States can live up to its obligations under international free-trade agreements.

A Policy Brief on H.R. 1108 (as reported by the Energy and Commerce Committee) can be found here.

Democrats Ignore Medicare Funding Warning

Last week Democrats responded to the Medicare trustees’ finding that the Medicare program faces significant future funding shortfalls—by resolving to ignore the problem. The resolution concerned a provision inserted into the Medicare Modernization Act at the behest of the RSC, which provided for the President to submit, and Congress to consider under expedited procedures, legislation to remedy Medicare’s funding problems when the program is projected to consume more than 45% of its funding from general revenues (as opposed to the Medicare payroll tax and beneficiary premiums). The Democrat majority’s action turned off this funding “trigger” for the balance of the 110th Congress, preventing those who believe in entitlement reform from taking action to force a House floor vote on Medicare reform legislation.

Many conservatives may be disappointed by the actions of Congressional Democrats, which prevented the President’s reasonable and modest proposals for Medicare reform—means testing that would make wealthier individuals like Warren Buffett and George Soros pay $2 per day more in Part D prescription drug premiums and liability reform to reduce the costs associated with defensive medicine practices— from receiving a vote in Congress. Many conservatives may believe that solving Medicare’s $86 trillion in unfunded obligations—and a Hospital Trust Fund scheduled to be exhausted in little more than a decade—will not be helped by Democrats’ apparent eagerness to ignore the problem. However, when Democrats like Florida’s Alcee Hastings note that “the perceived problem with Medicare funding has already been addressed,” many conservatives may be concerned that this lack of awareness will only hasten the day when Medicare’s funding shortfalls jeopardize the viability of the program—and wonder what policy-makers will tell their senior constituents when it does.

There are RSC Policy Briefs related to the Medicare trigger: Legislative Background; Talking Points on Trigger; Questions for House Democrats; Size of Medicare Program; White House Trigger Bill; Medicare Trustees Report

Article of Note: Fuzzy Math

Last Wednesday the New York Times reported on the many financial discrepancies surrounding the health care plan of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). While Sen. Obama has been consistent in saying that his health plan would save every American family $2,500 per year, many observers have come to question the factual basis for a “best guess” assertion by his advisers early last year. Independent estimates, including those by the Congressional Budget Office, have questioned whether the savings from such initiatives as health information technology and chronic care management will materialize, particularly in the four-year timeline Sen. Obama has promised—such that even a statement by Obama’s own advisers backtracked from any assertions that the purported savings would materialize by a date certain.

Many conservatives may be skeptical of Sen. Obama’s claims, particularly as the liberal Commonwealth Fund released a report in December with a menu of options for savings that would by their estimates achieve a total reduction in spending of only 6% in 10 years. Some conservatives may also be concerned that, in an attempt to reduce health care costs—whether by 8%, 6%, or some lesser amount— Sen. Obama would rely first and foremost on imposing price controls on physicians, pharmaceutical manufacturers, and insurance companies, along with rationing care through a government-controlled comparative effectiveness institute. Many conservatives may believe that such bureaucratic restrictions would in the long run prove far more effective at growing the size of government than slowing the growth of health care costs.

Read the article here: New York Times: “Health Plan from Obama Sparks Debate

Questions for House Democrats on the Medicare Trigger

  • Ways and Means Health Subcommittee Chairman Pete Stark has publicly stated that “Medicare is not in crisis.” Yet the Medicare program faces unfunded liabilities of $86 trillion—more than 70 times the total anticipated losses from subprime mortgages worldwide.  Why do House Democrats believe that a $1.2 trillion “crisis” requires the creation of massive new government programs to help borrowers, while $86 trillion in debt from an existing government program warrants no action at all?
  • Democrats have complained that the trigger is an “arbitrary” calculation of the health of the Medicare program. Since they find Medicare’s $86 trillion in unfunded obligations an “arbitrary” figure too low to prompt any concern, how high will Medicare’s expected losses have to rise before Democrats will take action?  $100 trillion?  $200 trillion?
  • “Fixing” the Medicare trigger this year requires finding less than $2 billion in savings during Fiscal Year 2013—this for a program projected to grow over the next five years from $454 billion to $636 billion in spending. Do Democrats really believe that nothing can be done to reduce Medicare’s growth in spending from $182 billion to a mere $180 billion over the next five years?
  • At a recent House Appropriations Committee markup, attempts to attach language creating a bipartisan commission to examine entitlement spending and make recommendations to Congress was defeated on a largely party-line vote. Why do most House Democrats oppose even creating a commission to study the nation’s impending fiscal crisis due to unsustainable entitlement spending?
  • Why do House Democrats believe that wealthy seniors—including billionaires like Warren Buffett and George Soros—should not be asked to pay $2 per day more in premiums for their prescription drug coverage to help improve the solvency of the Medicare program?
  • A House Democratic aide recently said that the party’s advice to frustrated families dealing with high gas prices consisted of “Drive small cars and wait for the wind.” What will Democrats tell seniors and those individuals looking to retire when the Medicare Hospital Trust Fund goes broke just over a decade from now?

Misplaced Democratic Priorities on Entitlement Reform

In March 2007, the Medicare trustees issued their first-ever Medicare funding warning, noting that the program is scheduled to consume a growing share of federal general revenues that could put other important national priorities at risk.  This past March, the Medicare trustees issued a second consecutive warning, and noted that Medicare faces future unfunded obligations of nearly $86 trillion—more than six times our nation’s current Gross Domestic Product.

President Bush proposed legislation to address the Medicare funding warning through medical liability reform and a means-test for the Part D prescription drug benefit, and pursuant to provisions in the Medicare Modernization Act, Congressional Democrats have a statutory obligation to act to preserve the program’s fiscal integrity.  Instead, House Democrats spent 2008 bringing to the floor legislation that would:

  • Prevent monkey bites by banning the sale of non-human primates (H.R. 2964);
  • Require employers who offer health insurance to cover mental health “diseases” like caffeine intoxication, jet lag, and transvestic fetishism (Section 102(d) of H.R. 1424);
  • Prohibit the sale of wild free-roaming horses and burros (H.R. 249);
  • Name 92 post offices;
  • Support the International Year of Sanitation (H. Con. Res. 318);
  • Restrict the transport of solid waste between the United States and Canada (H.R. 518);
  • Institute an alert system for sewage overflows (H.R. 2452);
  • Waive permitting requirements for the discharge of bilge water (S. 2766);
  • Recognize National Funeral Director and Mortician Day (H. Res. 892);
  • Define an “over-the-road bus” for purposes of federal law (H.R. 3985);
  • Provide exceptions for the $1 coin dispensing capacity for certain vending machines (H.R. 3703);
  • Authorize grants for the Eurasia Foundation (H.R. 2949);
  • Recognize the importance of mobile homes (H. Res. 1010);
  • Require weather radios to be installed in all manufactured homes (H.R. 2787);
  • Create a Native Hawaiian tribe where one does not exist (H.R. 505);
  • Make technical corrections to the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (S. 2571);
  • Protect popcorn workers from developing lung disease (H.R. 2693);
  • Support the goals of National Passport Month (H. Res. 554);
  • Ensure fairness in bail bond forfeiture (H.R. 2286);
  • Permit representatives not from the 50 states to cast votes in Congress (H. Res. 78; H.R. 1905)
  • Support the goals of National Trails Day (H. Res. 401); and
  • Establish protected wilderness or trails in the Jefferson National Forest (H.R. 1011), the Star-Spangled Banner route (H.R. 1388), the Eightmile River (H.R. 986), the Skykomish River (H.R. 886), along the Washington-Rochambeau route (H.R. 1286), in New England (H.R. 1528), and along the “wild and scenic” Taunton River (H.R. 415).

While some of these bills may be worthwhile or even needed, many Republicans may believe that considering these and other pieces of legislation while ignoring Medicare’s significant future funding shortfalls represents severely misplaced priorities on the part of the Democrat majority—and a disservice to America’s seniors.

Important Points on the Medicare Trigger

Virtually all independent experts have confirmed what most of the public already knows: Rising health care costs and the retirement of the Baby Boomers make Medicare’s financial future precarious.  Yet while Republicans have advanced plans to improve this important program’s solvency, Democrats seem intent on ignoring the looming entitlement crisis until it is too late.

Medicare Comprises a Large—and Growing—Share of Government Spending

In 2006, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reports that Medicare outlays were $408.3 billion.  Comparable 2006 data from other government agencies demonstrates the relative size of Medicare’s budget:

  • If Medicare were its own country, it would have the 17th largest economy of the 180 national economies ranked by the World Bank.
  • Federal Medicare spending exceeds the total national GDP of the 16 countries that comprise southern Africa combined.
  • The federal government spends more money on Medicare than the Departments of Agriculture, Education, Energy, Homeland Security, Transportation, and Veterans Affairs spend combined.
  • The Medicare actuaries predict that over the next decade, Medicare spending will rise by an average 7.4% per year—more if scheduled reductions in physician payments do not take effect.

Medicare Faces a Bleak Financial Future

Projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the annual report issued by the Medicare trustees provide some indication of the scope of the fiscal problems facing Medicare in the future:

  • The Medicare trustees report released in March projected that the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2019—just over a decade from now.
  • The trustees also project that overall spending on Medicare will rise from its 2006 level of 3.1% of GDP to reach 7.0% of GDP by 2035 and 10.8% GDP by 2082—nearly twice the size of Social Security, and more than one dollar out of every ten spent (public or private) nationwide.
  • CBO estimates—which, unlike the trustees’ report, presume that health costs will continue to rise at a pace consistent with past trends—that Medicare alone will constitute 17% of GDP by 2082—a nearly sixfold increase from 2006 and equal to all health care spending (private and public) today.
  • A former Medicare trustee found that, in order to solve the program’s funding shortfall, Part B premiums would need to rise to over $3,000-$5,000 per month in today’s money if the share of general revenue Medicare funding remains constant.

Democrats Have No Plan to Restore Medicare’s Solvency

While the Congressional Budget Office has concluded that “the main message [from both reports] is that health care spending is projected to rise significantly and that changes in federal law will be necessary to avoid or mitigate a substantial increase in federal spending on Medicare,” Democrats have not acted to fix the problem:

  • When the Medicare trustees released their report noting that Medicare faces nearly $86 trillion in unfunded obligations, Ways and Means Health Subcommittee Chairman Pete Stark responded by saying, “I don’t think it makes any difference what [the trustees] say” about the precarious state of Medicare’s funding.
  • Former Comptroller General David Walker has noted that each year Congress does not act to reform its entitlement obligations, the size of the debt the next generation of Americans face grows by $2 trillion.
  • Republicans have put forth several proposals to close the size of the Medicare funding gap—but Democrats would rather grow the federal debt than take reasonable steps to slow the growth of America’s massive government programs.

Weekly Newsletter: May 5, 2008

Democrat Attacks on HSAs Miss the Mark

This past week, Democrats attempted to use a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report to cast aspersions on Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). The Democrats who requested the GAO report—which analyzed data from HSA contributions made in 2005—asserted that the study proved that HSAs are nothing more than a tax shelter for wealthy individuals.

However, some conservatives may be strongly skeptical of these conclusions, particularly as the report utilized tax data from a year when the number of HSA policy-holders was one-sixth its current level. In addition, many conservatives may applaud the data demonstrating that individuals are building real savings in their HSA accounts to use for health expenses—money that consumers, not insurance companies or government bureaucrats, can control and spend for health care needs.

What is clear is that HSAs have proved tremendously popular in the four years since their introduction. America’s Health Insurance Plans reported Wednesday that more than 6.1 million individuals are covered by HSA-eligible insurance, and that enrollment in HSA plans had increased by 35% during 2007 alone. Given the widespread adoption of this new consumer-directed product, and its impact on reducing the growth of health care costs, many conservatives may object to any Democrat proposals to eliminate HSAs or make them unattractive through unnecessary bureaucratic regulations.

The RSC Policy Brief summarizing the HSA reports can be found here.

Leavitt Speech Highlights Need for Entitlement Reform

Last Wednesday, Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt used a speech at the Newseum to advance the cause of Medicare reform, outlining some over-arching principles to guide policy-makers looking to curb the spiraling growth of federal entitlements. In his speech—and a subsequent briefing before RSC Members and staff—he compared the federal government’s looming entitlement obligations as a whirlpool threatening to consume growing amounts of the economy, and advocated for increased competition in Medicare Parts A and B as one measure to stem the spiraling costs.

Many conservatives will support Secretary Leavitt’s call for comprehensive reform, and seek an immediate solution to the problems plaguing Medicare. This year’s Medicare trustees report placed the program’s total unfunded obligations at $86 trillion—which will provide some conservatives with a strong impetus to use all available legislative mechanisms to advance the cause of Medicare reform.

The RSC has released Policy Briefs highlighting the Medicare “trigger,” the President’s proposed legislation, and other options for comprehensive entitlement reform.

Genetic Non-Discrimination Act Passes Overwhelmingly

Last Thursday, the House by a 414-1 vote passed the Senate amendments to the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act (H.R. 493), sending the bill to the President’s desk. The compromise language negotiated between Senate sponsors and Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) had previously passed the Senate on a 95-0 vote.

The compromise language corrects several issues of concern to conservatives. Insurers and employers will be prohibited from discriminating against individuals on the basis of fetal genetic information, ensuring that individuals will not feel pressured into aborting their unborn children. In addition, existing policies on insurance underwriting for diseases already manifest in individuals will be maintained, and entities subject to existing privacy regulations under the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) will not be subject to a new regulatory regime. Lastly, the compromise language improved a conservative concern that employers will not be subject to Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) tribunals or lawsuits for decisions they make in their capacity as an insurer for their employees.

The RSC Legislative Bulletin on the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act can be found here.

Medicare Trustees’ Report

Summary:  The report issued by the Medicare trustees notes several funding challenges for the program in both the short and long term.  The Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, which is funded primarily by payroll taxes and finances Medicare Part A, is “not adequately financed over the next ten years” according to the trustees’ assumptions.  The report projects that the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2019—the same year of exhaustion as in last year’s report, but at an earlier point within the year, due to lower payroll tax receipts and higher-than-expected expenditures.

While Medicare Parts B and D, financed by the Supplemental Medical Insurance Trust Fund, are considered adequately financed by the trustees, this determination stems largely from the fact that these portions of Medicare can—and do—claim a large and growing share of federal general revenues.  The report notes that Part B costs have risen by an average 9.6% annually over the past five years, and is likely to grow by about 8% annually over the next decade, presuming Congress continues to override scheduled reductions in Medicare physician payment reimbursements.

In the longer term, the trustees project Medicare spending to rise sharply over the next 75 years.  The report projects that by 2082, overall spending on Medicare will more than triple, from 3.2% of national gross domestic product (GDP) to 10.8%—nearly twice the projected size of Social Security, and more than one in every ten dollars spent in the private and public sectors.

Medicare “Trigger”:  For the third consecutive year, the trustees report includes a finding that general revenue Medicare spending—that is, Medicare spending not financed by payroll taxes, or by beneficiary premiums and co-payments—will exceed 45% of total Medicare outlays within the next seven fiscal years.  This “trigger” language was included in Title VIII of the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 at the behest of the Republican Study Committee, to provide a mechanism for policy-makers to measure the fiscal soundness of the Medicare program, and for Congress to consider ways to reform its operations should entitlement spending continue to rise.

The trustees’ warning means that, absent a change in current law, the next President will be required to submit legislation to Congress providing a remedy to bring general revenue Medicare spending within 45% of total Medicare outlays.  In addition, the 111th Congress would be required to consider legislation addressing the funding warning by the summer of 2009, with special discharge opportunities available in both the House and Senate should leadership not bring legislation to the floor of each chamber.  However, the “trigger” provision will not apply should Congress enact legislation remedying the trustees’ latest funding warning this year.

Additional Background:  Because of the uncertainties associated with budgetary projections spanning many decades, there are some suggestions that the significant unfunded liabilities included in the trustees’ report may actually underestimate the losses Medicare faces.  A November 2007 report by the Congressional Budget Office released 75-year projections materially divergent from the analysis released by the Medicare trustees.  The trustees’ report projects Medicare spending to consume nearly 11% of total GDP by the end of the 75-year period, while CBO estimates that Medicare will consume more than one in six dollars spent in the United States (17% of GDP).  The disparity in the two projections stems from the trustees’ assumption that excess cost growth—that is, the annual growth in health spending above the growth in GDP—would decline much more rapidly than both current and past levels of health care spending.[1]

Using data from the CBO report, as well as the trustees’ 2007 update, former Medicare public trustee Tom Saving analyzed the size of Medicare’s unfunded obligations.  If the CBO projections are accurate, Medicare faces 75-year obligations of $38.4 trillion and infinite horizon obligations of $84.2 trillion, as opposed to $34 trillion and $74 trillion respectively under the assumptions in last year’s official trustees’ report.[2]

While the specific amounts of Medicare’s future unfunded obligations by definition have yet to be determined, the trustees’ long-range model may make it more likely that the trustees would underestimate rather than overestimate the size of the shortfall which Medicare faces.  Fiscal prudence may therefore dictate that given that uncertainty, Congress should make every effort to restore Medicare’s fiscal solvency now, so that future policy-makers will have a margin for error should further reforms be needed some decades from now.  As the CBO report concludes, “the main message [from both reports] is that health care spending is projected to rise significantly and that changes in federal law will be necessary to avoid or mitigate a substantial increase in federal spending on Medicare.”[3]

Comparison with Prior Year Data:  In addition to the updated projections regarding the date of the Medicare trust funds’ exhaustion, the trustees’ report also includes totals for Medicare’s unfunded obligations for a 75-year budget window and an “infinite horizon” projection.  Comparison charts for those projections follow:

 

Unfunded Obligation Projections for 75-Year Budget Window (2008-2082)

  2007 Trustees’ Report

(in trillions of dollars)

2008 Trustees’ Report

(in trillions of dollars)

Part A (Hospital Insurance) $11.6 (1.6% of GDP) $12.4 (1.6% of GDP)
Part B (Obligations less beneficiary premiums) $13.9 (1.9% of GDP) $15.7 (2.0% of GDP)
Part D (Obligations less beneficiary premiums and state “clawback” payments) $8.4 (1.2% of GDP) $7.9 (1.0% of GDP)
TOTAL $33.9 (4.7% of GDP) $36.0 (4.6% of GDP)

 

Unfunded Obligation Projections for Infinite Horizon

  2007 Trustees’ Report

(in trillions of dollars)

2008 Trustees’ Report

(in trillions of dollars)

Part A (Hospital Insurance) $29.5 (2.6% of GDP) $34.4 (2.6% of GDP)
Part B (Obligations less beneficiary premiums) $27.7 (2.4% of GDP) $34.0 (2.6% of GDP)
Part D (Obligations less beneficiary premiums and state “clawback” payments) $17.1 (1.5% of GDP) $17.2 (1.3% of GDP)
TOTAL $74.3 (6.5% of GDP) $85.6 (6.5% of GDP)

In general, the overall size of the unfunded obligations has remained nearly constant as a percentage of GDP, while growing in absolute dollar terms.  Of particular note is the fact that while Part A obligations remained constant in GDP terms, and Part B obligations rose as a percentage of GDP, the obligations associated with the privately-administered Part D prescription drug benefit remained constant in dollar terms and decreased as a percentage of GDP.  Although introduction of a prescription drug benefit has significantly increased Medicare’s unfunded obligations in absolute terms, the fact that competition among Part D participants has slowed the growth of its costs suggests that similar efforts to inject competition into Medicare Parts A and B could comprise one element of comprehensive Medicare reform.

Revenue-Based “Reform” and Its Impact:  Several studies have examined ways in which the Medicare program could be made fiscally solvent by increasing revenues, and these options appear neither economically viable nor politically palatable.  In 2005, the Heritage Foundation published a report using that year’s trustee data to determine the level of payroll taxes needed to close Medicare’s funding gap.  The report noted that, in order to achieve a 75-year balance, Medicare payroll taxes would need nearly to quintuple—from the current 2.9% up to 13.4%, where they would remain until 2079.  The study also found that this tax increase would sharply affect economic growth, lowering real GDP levels by nearly $200 billion annually (resulting in lower corporate and income tax receipts), and reducing private sector employment levels by more than 2.2 million jobs over the course of a decade.[4]  In other words, by decreasing personal income levels, a significant tax increase to ensure Medicare’s solvency would reduce personal consumption at rates that could have a long-term stagnating effect on the American economy.

Former Medicare public trustee Tom Saving has also published some unofficial projections about the level of beneficiary contributions required for Medicare to achieve fiscal balance, presuming that the share of general revenues used to finance the Medicare program remains constant.  In the case of such a scenario whereby only seniors pay for the increase in Medicare spending, premiums would rise exponentially, such that by 2081, retirees would be paying premiums in a range of $3,000 to $4,900 per month in year 2006 dollars.[5]  Although some additional cost-sharing for beneficiaries may be necessary in the context of overall Medicare reform, the idea that seniors could pay the future equivalent of $30,000-$50,000 annually in premiums alone is unrealistic.

Reform Options:  In light of the difficulties discussed above with revenue-based options to solve Medicare’s fiscal woes, a more feasible alternative might couple targeted opportunities for increased beneficiary cost-sharing with reforms designed to empower beneficiaries with the information and incentives needed to direct and control their health spending.  Comprehensive proposals to reform Medicare in this vein could include:

Premium Support:  This model would convert Medicare into a system similar to the Federal Employees Benefit Health Plan (FEHBP), in which beneficiaries would receive a defined contribution from Medicare to purchase a health plan of their choosing.  Previously incorporated into alternative RSC budget proposals, a premium support plan would provide a level playing field between traditional Medicare and private insurance plans, providing comprehensive reform, while confining the growth of Medicare spending to the annual statutory raise in the defined contribution limit, thus ensuring long-term fiscal stability.

Consumer-Driven Health Options:  These reforms would build on the success of the Health Savings Account (HSA) model in reducing health care cost growth for the under-65 population.  Reforms in this area would alter the existing prohibition forbidding holders of HSAs from contributing additional funds to their accounts once they become Medicare-eligible.  A new payment mechanism could allow these beneficiaries to keep their HSA-compatible insurance policy into retirement, with Medicare financing a portion of the premium.  In addition, reforms to Medicare Medical Savings Accounts (MSAs) could make them more attractive to beneficiaries who do not have an existing HSA, providing additional incentives for seniors to become more cost-conscious when considering health care treatment options.

Restructure Cost-Sharing Requirements:  This concept would restructure the existing system of deductibles, co-payments, and shared costs, which can vary based on the service provided.  Additionally, Medicare currently lacks a catastrophic cap on beneficiary cost-sharing, leading some seniors to purchase Medigap policies that insulate beneficiaries from out-of-pocket costs and provide little incentive to contain health spending.  Reforms in this area would rationalize the current system, generating budgetary savings and reducing the growth of health spending.

Means Testing:  This idea would establish an income-related Part D premium consistent with the Part B “means testing” included in Title VIII of the Medicare Modernization Act.  The proposal—which was included in the President’s Fiscal Year 2009 budget proposal—would achieve savings of $3.2 billion over five years.  The RSC has previously included similar proposals in its budget documents as one way to constrain costs and ensure consistency between a Part B benefit that is currently means-tested and a Part D benefit that is not.

Increase Medicare Part B Premium:  The RSC has previously proposed increasing the Part B premium from 25% to 50% of total Medicare Part B costs, consistent with the original goal of the program.  This concept would not impact low-income seniors, as Medicaid pays Medicare premiums for individuals with incomes under 120% of the federal poverty level.

Conclusion: The Medicare funding warning issued by the trustees last year, and again this year, provides an opportunity to re-assess the program’s structure and finance.  These two consecutive warnings—coupled with the trustees’ estimate that the Medicare trust fund will be exhausted in just over a decade’s time—should prompt Congress to consider ways to reduce the growth of overall Medicare costs, particularly those which utilize competition and consumer empowerment to create a more efficient and cost-effective Medicare program.

The Administration has put forward two separate proposals—the first in its Fiscal Year 2009 budget submission to Congress, the second as part of its formal submission of legislation (H.R. 5480) required under the MMA “trigger”—to address Medicare’s long-term solvency issues and begin a process of comprehensive reform.  Many conservatives are likely to view the trustees’ warning as providing another impetus for action on proposals that curb soaring entitlement spending, using the measures described above to advance the discussion beyond annual funding warnings and toward actions that ensure Medicare’s long-term fiscal stability.

 

[1] Congressional Budget Office, “The Long-Term Outlook for Health Care Spending,” (Washington, DC, November 2007), available online at http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/87xx/doc8758/11-13-LT-Health.pdf (accessed March 24, 2008), p. 16.

[2] Andrew Rettenmaier and Tom Saving, “Medicare’s Future Burden: Trustees versus CBO Estimates,” (College Station, TX, Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, March 2008), available online at http://www.heritage.org/research/HealthCare/upload/Medicares_Future_Burden.pdf (accessed March 25, 2008), pp. 16-19.

[3] CBO, “Long-Term Outlook,” p. 16.

[4] Tracy Foertsch and Joe Antos, “The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Financing Medicare’s Unfunded Liabilities,” (Washington, DC, Heritage Foundation Center for Data Analysis Paper CDA05-06, October 11, 2005), available online at http://www.heritage.org/Research/HealthCare/upload/83702_1.pdf (accessed March 24, 2008), pp. 7-9.

[5] Rettenmaier and Saving, “Medicare’s Future Burden,” p. 8.

Health Care Spending Growth

Background:  Last month, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released its annual report projecting health care spending over the next decade.  The report concluded that nationwide health expenditures are expected to rise 6.7% annually in the next ten years, causing health care spending to rise to 19.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2017.  These projections are consistent with a November report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) highlighting the long-term projections for health care spending, which estimated that health expenditures could comprise just under half (49%) of GDP within 75 years.

Ten Year Projections:  The report by the CMS actuaries, released online by the journal Health Affairs, documents the continued growth in health care spending and hints at upcoming trends associated with the retirement of the Baby Boom generation.  In 2007, health care spending is projected to have grown at a 6.7% rate, reaching $2.2 trillion, or approximately 16.3% of GDP.  The report provides a snapshot of current health expenditures, and also cites several projected spending trends over the next decade:

  • Private health insurance premiums grew at a slower rate (6.0%) than overall health care expenditures in 2007, consistent with trends evident since 2004.
  • Prescription drug spending grew by 6.7% in 2007, a measurable slowdown in spending when compared to the increases for the prior two years (12.0% in 2005 and 8.5% in 2006), due in large part to increased price competition and generic drug usage.
  • Private spending on health care is projected to grow more slowly in the latter part of the projection period (2007-2017), while public spending “is expected to accelerate…as the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation becomes eligible for Medicare.”  While the aging population will have minimal effects on overall health expenditures, its effects on public spending, particularly through Medicare, will be significant.
  • Enrollment in private Medicare Advantage plans is expected to rise to 27.5% by 2017, up from 16.4% in 2006.
  • Just over half of the growth in health care spending comes from increases in medical costs, with about one-quarter of the increase due to utilization (volume and intensity of services), and the remainder due to population growth, demographics, and related factors.

Overall, the report’s conclusions indicate that although all health spending continues to rise, the increase in public health spending has accelerated.  While the competition created by the Medicare prescription drug benefit may have contributed to the considerable slowing in pharmaceutical expenditures, an aging population moving to Medicare will only hasten the growth of public spending.

In fact, the true size of the government’s future obligations for health spending is likely underestimated by the model used in the actuaries’ report, which presumes that existing law adjustments in physician reimbursements under the sustainable growth rate mechanism (SGR) will take effect.  If the SGR’s proposed reductions are instead replaced by a 0% increase—in other words, if physician payments are held steady through 2017—Medicare spending will rise by 8.0% annually over the next decade, instead of the 7.4% projected under the trustees’ current law model.

Historical Examples and Long-Term Projections:  The report produced by the CMS actuaries follows on the heels of a study, conducted by CBO and released in November 2007, which examined both historical trends in health care spending and long-term projections for its growth over the next 75 years.  Most notably, the report documents a historical shift in health care expenditures: a significant reduction in out-of-pocket spending, which declined from 31% to 13% of all health expenditures between 1975 and 2005, and the nearly commensurate increase in third-party payment by insurance carriers, which increased from 25% to 37% of health spending nationwide.  While the growth in new technologies and services has helped drive the growth in health spending which CBO documents, the continued rise of third-party payment—which can insulate patients from the marginal costs associated with additional treatments—may well have had inflationary effects.  This shift away from out-of-pocket spending occurred despite the findings of a landmark RAND Institute study, which concluded that higher cost-sharing helped constrain health care spending at little to no adverse effect on patients’ health.

On a forward-looking basis, CBO projects that overall health care spending will more than double in the next thirty years, rising from 14.9% of GDP in 2005 (and 4.7% in 1975) to 31% in 2035, growing thereafter to nearly half the nation’s economy (49% of GDP) in 2081.  The net federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid is projected to rise at a higher rate than overall health spending, growing from 26% of total spending on health care currently to 30% within thirty years, and 38% of total spending by 2082.

These 75-year projections are materially divergent from the projections made by the Medicare trustees in their annual report.  The trustees project Medicare spending to consume nearly 11% of total GDP by the end of the projection period, while CBO estimates that Medicare will consume more than one in six dollars spent in the United States (17% of GDP).  As the Medicare trustees’ projection notes $36 trillion in unfunded liabilities for the program over the next 75 years, the significantly higher projections made by CBO in its study should provide yet another impetus to enact comprehensive entitlement reform that addresses the unchecked growth in health costs.

Excess Cost Growth:  Both the CMS actuaries’ report and the CBO study projecting long-term health expenditures highlight the issue of excess cost growth in health care.  In this context, “excess cost growth” does not imply a value judgment as to whether or not the spending is necessary or appropriate; rather, the term connotes spending that exceeds economic and productivity growth.  For instance, the CMS actuaries project that health spending will rise by 6.7% over the next ten years, while nominal (i.e. non-inflation-adjusted) GDP will rise by 4.7%, resulting in excess cost growth of 2.0% annually for the decade.

The CBO report projects that the growth of overall health care spending will exceed the rate of economic growth by more than 2% annually for at least the next decade, and will continue to exceed economic growth throughout the entire 75-year projection period.  The report also projects that excess cost growth for Medicare and Medicaid will continue at rates far exceeding cost growth within the private sector,  noting that “that aspect of the projections may appear unrealistic, but it highlights the core problem—the unsustainability of current federal law.”

Over and above the unrealistic nature of the promises made in current federal law, and the need for comprehensive entitlement reform to remedy a looming fiscal crisis for Medicare, the excess cost growth discussed in the CBO report could also have significant macroeconomic implications by displacing other spending.  While CBO projects that per capita economic consumption will increase by $15,000 (in current dollars) from 2005-2035, more than three-quarters of that higher spending will be spent on health care.  Absent external action, health care costs could grow to consume all marginal increases in economic productivity—at which point both consumption and growth of other sectors of the economy could stagnate, and standards of living apart from health care (e.g. clothing, housing, etc.) could fall over time.  Although this pessimistic scenario remains somewhat distant, it highlights the need to understand the factors behind the growth in health spending, and substantially reduce excess cost growth in the coming years.

Geographic Variations:  Another CBO report issued in February examined one source of excess cost growth in health care: geographic variations in total spending.  The report notes that state per capita health expenses in 2004 ranged from a low of about $4,000 in Utah to a high of nearly $6,700 in Massachusetts—a more than 50% disparity.  Analysis of Medicare claims data showed a similar disparity among states—ranging from a per-beneficiary expenditure of $5,600 in South Dakota to $8,700 in Louisiana—and additional variations in areas within states.

The report also notes that geographic differences in price inputs (i.e. cost of labor, etc.), health status, and demographic factors (e.g. income, race, education level) likely constitute at most half of the observed deviation in expenditures, meaning that much of the geographic variation in health spending cannot be explained by known factors.  In other words, similar patients with similar diseases, living in areas with similar prices, are likely to receive differing levels of medical treatments and services.  Of particular note is the fact that patients living in areas with higher spending yield no better results with respect to both health processes and outcomes than patients in low-spending areas—and on some measures at least may receive worse care.

While the CBO report cites studies attributing some geographic variations in health spending to areas with a high supply of health providers (particularly hospitals and specialist physicians) creating additional demand for services, competition among a greater number of providers is likely to exert downward pressure on prices, if not the number of services performed.  To the extent that geographic variation in health costs are in fact driven by excess supply, some conservatives may be wary of government efforts—such as a Certificate of Need model for approving new hospital construction, or restrictions on physician-owned specialty hospitals—that impose bureaucratic regulations to stifle the supply of health providers, as they are likely to have adverse and unintended consequences that reduce access to care.  Many conservatives might prefer a more productive solution focused on mechanisms to place reasonable restraints on demand, by reducing the historical trends that have increased reliance on third-party payment, and making price and quality measures more transparent, so that consumers can have more information about available treatment options—and make a rational choice as to whether or not the additional treatment justifies the marginal cost.

Summary and Conclusions:  The growth in health care spending projected in the coming decades, following upon years of sustained increases, is likely to place significant and exacting demands on both the private and public sectors of the American economy absent external action.  Many conservatives believe that a discussion of ways to stem the growth in health care costs should be a part of any discussion to achieve so-called universal coverage, as health insurance would become much more affordable for all Americans at the point when premium costs and related expenditures rise at a more modest (and therefore more sustainable) rate.

The geographic variations in Medicare spending, particularly those portions of which cannot be explained by regional differences in income or health status, might prompt some Democrats to call for a centralized, government-controlled mechanism to reduce spending in higher-cost areas, likely through rationed care.  One popular variation on this approach has emerged in the form of comparative effectiveness, which would attempt to conduct research on the cost-effectiveness of various treatment options with an eye towards establishing more uniform practice standards.  While such efforts by the private sector could help reduce costs, many conservatives might have strong concerns as to whether a government-run effectiveness institute—such as the center proposed by Democrats in a wide-ranging health bill last July (H.R. 3162), which would have been funded by tax increases on insurance premiums—would result in a federal bureaucracy micro-managing the doctor-patient relationship, and ultimately, rationing care to patients.

A better alternative might lie in the data showing that private health spending is not rising as dramatically as expenditures on public health programs, suggesting that competition—and placing health care dollars in control of patients—holds the true solution to containing health costs.  The significant decline in out-of-pocket spending over the past three decades, and the escalating rise in costs during that time, demonstrate the perils associated when third-party payment of health expenses, particularly incidental (i.e. non-catastrophic) expenses, insulates patients from the marginal costs of additional treatment.  Likewise, the geographic variations in Medicare spending stem from a publicly-funded system where the costs for additional treatment can be minor—especially in areas where a high percentage of seniors own Medigap policies that can insulate beneficiaries from any increase in marginal costs.

The funding warning issued by the Medicare trustees, and the subsequent action required by Congress to act on legislation addressing this “trigger,” provides an opportunity for conservatives to construct a system designed to address the geographic variations in Medicare costs—with an impact that could stretch throughout the entire health system.  An improved and enhanced Medicare system similar to the Federal Employee Health Benefits Plan (FEHBP)—where beneficiaries receive a defined contribution from Medicare to select a health plan of their choosing—would eliminate much of the geographic variations currently present within Medicare, slowing the growth of health costs and restoring the program’s long-term stability.

Weekly Newsletter: March 10, 2008

Democrat Budget Fails to Address Medicare’s Woes…

The concurrent budget resolution (H. Con. Res. 312), which Democrats will bring to the House floor this week, does not include provisions providing comprehensive Medicare reform. The budget includes reconciliation provisions instructing the Ways and Means Committee to reduce spending on mandatory programs within their jurisdiction—but by only $750 million over the next five years. An amendment offered during last week’s Budget Committee markup by RSC Chairman Hensarling, which offered reconciliation instructions to ensure that Congress addresses the funding warning issued by the Medicare trustees last year, was defeated on a party-line vote.

Many conservatives will be concerned that, with the Medicare trust funds projected to be exhausted in little more than a decade, the Democrats’ budget will make no substantive effort to address Medicare’s $74 trillion in unfunded liabilities. In addition, some conservatives may be concerned by press reports indicating that the Democrat leadership will use the reconciliation process to justify new spending proposals for health care, rather than using all savings achieved to reduce the deficit and improve Medicare’s long-term viability.

More information on the Medicare trigger—and the President’s proposals for entitlement reform—can be found here.

…And Increases Spending on SCHIP

The Democrat budget also includes a proposed $50 billion reserve fund to finance an expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). This reserve fund would be consistent with a bill (H.R. 3162) considered by the House last July, under which nearly two and a half million children would drop private health insurance coverage in order to join a government-financed program—including children in families with incomes of more than $80,000.

Most conservatives support the enrollment and funding of the SCHIP program for the populations for whom it was created. However, continued efforts to extend this government-financed program to wealthier children and families may give some conservatives concern. If Democrats wish to look out for America’s children, some conservatives might argue that the better way to help is to reform Medicare and Medicaid so that future generations will not be saddled with trillions of dollars of debt, not to work to expand public programs for wealthier families.

An RSC Policy Brief discussing Administration proposals on SCHIP can be found here.

Mental Health Parity Bill Passes House

A Top Ten list of conservative concerns about H.R. 1424 can be found here.

Votes on the motion to recommit and final passage can be found here: Motion to Recommit Final Passage

Article of Note: Silence on Medicare Reform

Last week, the New York Times highlighted the absence of plans by Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama to confront the fiscal entitlement crisis our country faces in the coming decade. Although a report issued last month by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimated that federal spending on health care will increase by 7.3% annually for the next decade, neither Democrat candidate has provided details on how to address the trillions of dollars of debt this additional spending will create.

The Times article notes that much of Medicare’s fiscal problem stems from the overall growth in health care costs. Several reports released in recent weeks have highlighted the need for measures to examine, and ultimately slow, excess cost growth within the health sphere. The RSC is preparing a policy brief summarizing these reports and offering some principles for controlling health costs using conservative, free-market solutions. By contrast, proposals by Sens. Clinton and Obama to control health costs contain a heavy emphasis on government-imposed price controls on insurance and pharmaceutical companies.

With the first Baby Boomer scheduled to become eligible for Medicare in fewer than three years, and the winner in November’s election likely to seek re-election, any potential President will have to address this crucial entitlement reform at some point during his (or her) intended term of office. Moreover, the $2 trillion added to America’s collective entitlement obligations every year that Congress and the President fail to take action provides a strong justification for immediate reform. Hopefully the Democratic contenders will embrace the opportunity to propose real, market-oriented solutions that control health care costs, or otherwise, as Robert Reischauer of the Urban Institute notes, “it will be difficult for Senator Clinton and Senator Obama to retain popular support for their plans once the details are supplied.”

Read the article here: New York Times: “About Those Health Care Plans by the Democrats…