How Graham-Cassidy’s Funding Formula Gives Washington Unprecedented Power

The past several days have seen competing analyses over the block-grant funding formula proposed in health-care legislation by Sens. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA). The bill’s sponsors have one set of spreadsheets showing the potential allocation of funds to states under their plan, the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has another, and consultants at Avalere (funded in this case by the liberal Center for American Progress) have a third analysis quantifying which states would gain or lose under the bill’s funding formula.

So who’s right? Which states will end up the proverbial winners and losers under the Graham-Cassidy bill? The answer is simple: Nope.

While the bill’s proponents claim the legislation will increase state authority, in reality the bill gives unelected bureaucrats the power to distribute nearly $1.2 trillion in taxpayer dollars unilaterally. In so doing, the bill concentrates rather than diminishes Washington’s power—and could set the course for the “mother of all backroom deals” to pass the legislation.

A Complicated Spending Formula

To start with, the bill repeals Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion and exchange subsidies, effective in January 2020. It then replaces those two programs with a block grant totaling $1.176 trillion from 2020 through 2026. All else equal, this set of actions would disadvantage states that expanded Medicaid, because the Medicaid expansion money currently being received by 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) would be re-distributed among all 50 states.

From there the formula gets more complicated. (You can read the sponsors’ description of it here.) The bill attempts to equalize per-person funding among all states by 2026, with funds tied to a state’s number of individuals with incomes between 50 percent and 138 percent of the poverty level.

Thus far, the formula carries a logic to it. For years conservatives have complained that Medicaid’s match rate formula gives wealthy states more incentives to draw down federal funds than poor states, and that rich states like New York and New Jersey have received a disproportionate share of Medicaid funds as a result. The bill’s sponsors claim that the bill “treats all Americans the same no matter where they live.”

Would that that claim were true. Page 30 of the bill demonstrates otherwise.

The Trillion-Dollar Loophole

Page 30 of the Graham-Cassidy bill, which creates a “state specific population adjustment factor,” completely undermines the rest of the bill’s funding formula:

IN GENERAL.—For calendar years after 2020, the Secretary may adjust the amount determined for a State for a year under subparagraph (B) or (C) and adjusted under subparagraphs (D) and (E) according to a population adjustment factor developed by the Secretary.

The bill does say that HHS must develop “legitimate factors” that affect state health expenditures—so it can’t allocate funding based on, say, the number of people who own red socks in Alabama. But beyond those two words, pretty much anything goes.

The bill says the “legitimate factors” for population adjustment “may include state demographics, wage rates, [and] income levels,” but it doesn’t limit the factors to those three characteristics—and it doesn’t limit the amount that HHS can adjust the funding formula to reflect those characteristics either. If a hurricane like Harvey struck Texas three years from now, Secretary Tom Price would be within his rights under the bill to cite a public health emergency and dedicate 100 percent of the federal grant funds—which total $146 billion in 2020—solely to Texas.

That scenario seems unlikely, but it shows the massive and virtually unprecedented power HHS would have under the bill to control more than $1 trillion in federal spending by executive fiat. To top it off, pages 6 through 8 of the bill create a separate pot of $25 billion — $10 billion for 2019 and $15 billion for 2020 — and tell the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator to “determine an appropriate procedure” for allocating the funds. That’s another blank check of $25,000,000,000 in taxpayer funds, given to federal bureaucrats to spend as they see fit.

Backroom Deals Ahead

With an unprecedented level of authority granted to federal bureaucrats to determine how much funding states receive, you can easily guess what’s coming next. Unnamed Senate staffers already invoked strip-club terminology in July, claiming they would “make it rain” on moderates with hundreds of billions of dollars in “candy.” Under the current version of the bill, HHS staff now have virtual carte blanche to promise all sorts of “state specific population adjustment factors” to influence the votes of wavering senators.

The potential for even more backroom deals than the prior versions of “repeal-and-replace” demonstrates the pernicious power that trillions of dollars in spending delivers to Washington. Draining the swamp shouldn’t involve distributing money from Washington out to states, whether under a simple formula or executive discretion. It should involve eliminating Washington’s role in doling out money entirely.

That’s what Republicans promised when they said they would repeal Obamacare—to end the law’s spending, not work on “spreading the wealth around.” That’s what they should deliver.

This post was originally published at The Federalist.

Gov. Jindal Op-Ed: An Obamacare Debate Worth Having

Repeal is not enough.

Five years later, that much should be clear. The law’s ill effects — higher premiums, cancelled health plans, bureaucratic ensnarements for doctor and patient alike — have all been well documented. This spring, the American people also got to know for the first time how Obamacare has complicated the tax code — raising taxes for many, and causing confusion and headaches for everyone.

But it’s long past time for the American people to get to know what conservatives would do in Obamacare’s stead. Our healthcare system did face a major threat before President Obama took office — rising costs that threaten to overwhelm middle-class families, and the federal budget as well. But while candidate Obama promised in 2008 to tackle costs, and lower premiums by $2,500 for the typical family, President Obama instead focused on expanding government-run health coverage, and missing the mark on his premium promise by over $1 trillion.

So yes, by all means, let’s ask the question: “Obamacare — when have you stood up and fought against it?” But anyone who wants to ask that question should have a detailed answer to this one: “Obamacare — what would you do instead?” Because it’s not particularly courageous for conservatives simply to oppose a law that remains deeply unpopular with voters. We must tell people what we are for, and let the American people know exactly what we will do, and how we will do it.

That’s why I put forward my own plan to replace Obamacare last year. It’s a plan that focuses like a laser beam on slowing the growth of healthcare costs. It offers 16 specific, proven methods that can work to curb health spending — from Health Savings Accounts, to wellness incentives, to lawsuit reforms that can reduce defensive medicine practices, to more insurance options that can spur competition and bring down prices. Just as important, the plan repeals all of Obamacare’s trillion dollars in tax increases and doesn’t replace them with a single penny of revenue hikes.

Thankfully, more Republicans are finally starting to put out specific proposals about how to replace Obamacare. I’m glad — that’s long since overdue. I think this issue is so important to conservatives, to our party, and to the future of our country that I want to lay down a very clear marker. I’m willing to debate anyone with a serious healthcare plan who wants to compare their Obamacare replacement plans with mine.

Obamacare is so harmful to our country — our health system, our economy and jobs, and our freedom — that we simply must repeal it, and put in place good reforms that will undo the damage Obamacare has caused.

It’s become fashionable in Republican circles in Washington to say that the hour is past, and that it is now too late to repeal all of Obamacare, and to say that we will just have to try to change it best we can. That’s nonsense.

After Hillary Clinton’s health plan went down to defeat in 1994, the Left never stopped their fight. I’ll bet Mrs. Clinton even sent a few emails out about it.

We as conservatives must do the same — we must fight until we win, and put forward a good conservative replacement for Obamacare now and challenge the President to do the right thing.

As Sen. Mike Lee recently said in Iowa: “If a presidential candidate tells us that he wants to repeal Obamacare but doesn’t have a healthcare reform proposal of his own, then maybe we should keep looking for another candidate.”

Sen. Lee is exactly right. We have to fight for what we promised the American people. And putting out clear, specific plans to replace Obamacare should comprise a major element of that effort — because repeal is not enough.

This post was originally published at the Washington Examiner.