Thursday, November 10, 2011

Lowering Health Spending — through a Bad Economy

At the HELP Committee hearing taking place now, head of the Medicare program Jonathan Blum again repeated the myth that this year’s lower-than-expected increase* in Part B premiums was due to Obamacare’s ability to lower costs through things like “investments” in prevention (read: jungle gyms).  That however is NOT what the non-partisan Medicare actuary concluded was responsible for the slowdown health cost growth; here’s the first paragraph of the actuary’s most recent summary of national health expenditure projections:

In 2010, NHE is projected to have reached $2.6 trillion and grown 3.9 percent, down from 4.0 percent in 2009.  Estimated spending growth in 2010 was slow due to continuing declines in employment and private health insurance coverage associated with the recent recession.

In other words, spending growth was slower – and the Medicare premium hike lower – than projected NOT because Obamacare worked, but because the Obama “stimulus” didn’t.  Put another way: If the Administration wants to take credit for the lower-than-expected increase in Medicare premiums, does it also (finally) want to accept blame for the lousy economic conditions that were its primary cause?